1月物価指標は下落傾向がより鮮明に
２月８日に中国国家統計局が発表した１月の消費者物価指数CPIは前年比0.8％下落となり、４カ月連続の減少となった。生産者物価指数PPIも前年比2.5％下落した。物価の下落傾向が鮮明になってきており、それだけ中国経済にデフレ圧力の強さが影響していることが示された。
CPIは昨年12月の前年比0.3％減少から下落幅が拡大し、2009年9月以来の大幅なマイナスを記録した。前月比では0.3％上昇だった。前月12月は同0.1％上昇だった。変動の激しい食品とエネルギー価格を除いたコアインフレ率は前年比0.4％上昇だが、12月の同0.6％上昇から上昇幅は縮小している。
CPIがこれだけ低下し続けていることは、中国経済が持続的にデフレ圧力に直面していることを示す。この傾向は、国内消費が低迷していることが要因である。これが恒常的になると、消費者は買い控えや消費先送りなどの行動に出る傾向強まるだろう。そうなると、デフレ期待が定着してしまい、消費は先細りとなる。中国政府は、デフレリスクを回避するため、迅速かつ積極的に行動を起こす必要があるだろう。中国政府も中国人民銀行も、より強力な政策支援を行うべきだろう。２月に広範な利下げが行われるとの期待も根強いが、為替での元安警戒感など政策余地は乏しい。財政政策は、3月の全人代を前に発動される可能性はほとんどないだろう。
株式市場も低迷
中国の株式市場の低迷は深刻になってきている。外国人投資家の中国回避姿勢は目立ってきており、中国株は2016年の安値に近い水準まで値を下げた。今年1月、1か月間で、海外投資家は中国株を約30億ドル売り越したことがわかっている。これで、６カ月連続での資金流出となった。本土の株式市場は、春節(旧正月)の連休に伴い2月9日から10日間休場となる。この休場期間で、流れを変えたいところだが、難しいと言わざるを得ない。
中国政府は2月７日に中国証券監督管理委員会(証監会)のトップである易会満主席を解任した。しかし、低下した信頼の回復という根本的な問題には、解決策とはならないだろう。後任の呉清・上海市共産党委員会副書記は、かねてから証監会の次期トップ候補と噂されてきた。2020年代半ばには、空売りを規制して、トレーダーに対する締め付けをを主導し、「ブローカー殺し」の異名でも知られる。しかし、海外投資家からは、今回の証監会トップの人事も奇異に見えるだろう。
一部報道では、中国当局は、２兆元規模での株価安定化基金を検討していると言われる。かつては日本でも、日銀やGPIFの資金での株式購入はあった。実需に響く規模で行えば、効果がないとは言えない。もちろん、それだけで長期的に市場が好転するとは言い難いが。
ただ、中国株の予想PER(株価収益率)は11倍まで低下している。これは、日本を下回り、米国とインドの約半分の水準である。相場の反転が望めるとなれば、海外勢でも色気のある投資家は、値ごろ感から買いで入ってくる可能性はあるだろう。
いずれにしても、中国経済には、デフレ要因の払しょくと、持続可能な成長戦略の再構築が必要である。株価の上昇にはより一貫した中国政府の政策と、不動産不況や地方政府債務の拡大に対応する再生計画が必要だろう。それにより、国内消費を底上げしていくしか、選択肢はないのだろう。
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