国家統計局が1月17日に発表した中国の国内総生産GDPは、2023年に5.2％増だった。第４四半期のGDPは前年同期比5.2％増だった。中国政府は2023年の成長率目標を「５％前後」としていたが、この水準はなんとか達成したことになる。1日先んじて、ダボスで開催されている世界経済フォーラム年次総会に出席した李強首相が、2023年の国内総生産GDP成長率が5.2％前後になったと述べていたが、その通りだった。
デフレ圧力に苦しむ中国経済
2023年を通して、中国経済は、デフレ圧力と不動産不況という悪循環に苦しめられた。中国当局は、成長目標の達成のために、金融緩和や財政政策による景気刺激策を展開したが、消費はなかなか伸びず、苦慮した跡がうかがわれる。国家統計局が発表した声明では、「中国経済は外部からの圧力に耐え、国内の課題を克服した」としているが、中国経済の先行きには「まだ幾つかの困難と課題に直面している」とも警告しており、政策当局が経済成長を支えるためどのような手を打つかに注目が集まる。国家統計局長は記者会見で、中国経済は回復過程にあり、当面は、安定を維持するとし、中国政府は今後、マクロ経済のコントロールを強め、内需拡大と供給サイドの構造改革深化を調和させるとの方針を示した。当局は、中国経済の勢いを維持しようとの意欲を見せてはいるが、今年はどのような支援策が講じられるのか様々な憶測を呼んでいる。
12月の統計は引き続き厳しい
足元の景気の状態は良いとは言えない。2023年12月に、工業生産は前年同月比6.8％増と上向いたが、小売売上高は同7.4％増と事前予想を下回った。都市部失業率は5.1％へと11月の５％から小幅とはいえ上昇した。消費とサービス業は、横ばいで推移しているが、物価水準は依然として低く、需要不足を示唆している。不動産市場はまだ全般的に調整の過程にあり、その回復は見通せていない。
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