予想外の決選投票結果に
7月7日に投開票されたフランス国民議会（下院・定数577）選挙の第2回投票では、第1回投票の結果を覆して、第2勢力にとどまると予想されていた左派連合が最大勢力になる見通しとなった。穏健派の社会党と極左の「不屈のフランス」を含む左派連合の「新人民戦線」が、170－215議席を得る見込みで、最も議席を獲得すると予想されていた極右政党・国民連合（ＲＮ）は、マクロン大統領の与党連合に次ぐ第３党にとどまりそうだという。
金融市場では、第1回投票の結果を受けて、先週までは、右派連合が主導する政権が誕生するとの警戒感が広がっていた。しかし、蓋を開けてみれば、左派連合が予想外の勝利を収めるという番狂わせに、フランス政界および今後の政策の不確実性への不安が広がる可能性に留意したい。フランスは、政治的にはEUの主軸となる国である上、ユーロ圏では経済規模も２番目に大きい。そのフランスで、政治・経済ともに不確実性が増大することは、プラスにはならないだろう。
マクロン大統領は政治的主導権を失うか？
今後の政権運営は、非常に困難になることは間違いないだろう。マクロン氏の与党連合は第１回投票ほどひどい状況ではないが、議席数では第２位の少数与党となる。マクロン大統領は、中道勢力を集めて連合政権を打ち立てることも理論上は可能であるが、第1会派は左派連合であり、その主張は与党とは異なる。
左派連合は、選挙公約では財政政策を大規模に緩和するとしていることも、懸念材料である。政府支出の大幅増は、与党との政策と相容れない部分であるし、仮に財政規律を緩和するとなれば、政府債務の増加は市場を混乱させる可能性がある。
金融市場の反応はこれからか
外国為替市場では、アジア時間の取引で、ユーロドルは前週末比0.3％ほど安い１ユーロ＝1.0807ドル近辺まで下げた。しかし、欧州時間の取引では、下げた分をほぼ回復して、1ユーロ＝1.084を回復している。
左派勢力の影響力拡大に対する警戒感を先読みすれば、フランス国債利回りへの上昇圧力は拡大する可能性が高まる。すでに、より安全なドイツ国債に対する上乗せ利回りスプレッドは66bpsに拡大しているが、今後更に拡大する可能性にも気をつけたい。
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