
MLF(中期貸出制度) 1年もの金利を2.50%に引き下げ
8月15日、中国人民銀行は中期貸出制度 (MLF)の1年物金利を2.65%から2.50%に引き下げることを発表した。予想外の引き下げ、かつ、引き下げ幅も前回までの0.10%より大幅で、踏み込んだ金融緩和であることを印象付けた。人民銀行はまた、7日物リバースレポ金利を従来の1.9%から1.8%に引き下げ、短期金融市場でも金利を低めに誘導する公開市場操作を実施した。
背景には、伸び悩む国内需要がある。積極的な金融緩和により、与信の伸びを下支えする必要があり、政策変更が緊急性を要するものと判断したと考えられる。ただ、国内需要の喚起を金利の低め誘導だけでは実現できないのではないか。市場には、今後数カ月以内に追加金融緩和に追い込まれる公算が高いとの見方が増えている。中国経済は不動産市況の悪化によるデフレスパイラルが新たなリスクとして認識されつつあり、景気のてこ入れを図ることは必須だろう。利下げの発表を受け、人民元が下落。10年債利回りは低下し、2020年以来の低水準を付けた。
7月経済指標も厳しい現状を示唆
中国国家統計局が15日発表した経済統計は、いずれも緩慢な経済成長を示唆するものだった。7月の工業生産は前年同月比3.7%増にとどまり、6月の同4.4%増からは伸び悩んだ。7月小売売上高も前年同月比2.5%の増加と予想の同4.0%程度を大きく下回った。また6月の同3.1%増からも増加幅は縮小した。1-7月の期間での固定資産投資は前年同期比3.4%増で、これも同3.7%増加と見込んでいた市場関係者の落胆を誘った。
7月の都市部失業率は5.3%と6月の5.2%から0.1%ポイント上昇した。6月に21.3%と記録的な悪化を示した若者(16-24歳)失業率については、統計局が、その公表自体を停止すると明らかにした。都合の悪い数字が独り歩きすることを嫌ったのだろうが、良くも悪くも継続することが統計の良さでもある。中国当局らしい措置ではあるのだが。
人民元下落、債券利回りも急低下
統計発表後、統計局は、中国国内の需要がなお、不十分であり、経済回復にむけて基礎を強化する必要があるとの分析を公表した。前回までの、やや強気にも受け止められるコメントとは異なり、マクロ経済政策の調整を強化し、内需拡大や信頼感を図り、ダウンサイドリスク防止に注力しなければならないと名言した。
中国人民銀行による、政策金利引き下げにより、金融市場では、人民元の為替レートが大きく下落した。人民元は対ドルで一時、1ドル=7.2875元を付け、昨年11月以来の安値を更新した。一方で、市場では、複数の国有銀行が7.28元前後の水準で米ドルを大量に売り、人民元の買い支えに動いたとの情報も流れた。15日午後の段階では、人民元は7.2760元程度まで値を持ち直した。ドル金利が高止まる中、人民元金利の先安感は、為替での人民元売り圧力となるだろう。人民銀行は金融政策に頭を悩ませる日々が続こう。
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