総務省が、20日に発表した消費者物価指数CPI (4月)は、コアCPIで前年同月比で2.1％上昇した。３月の同0.8％上昇から伸びが加速した。上昇率では、2008年9月以来の高水準だった。昨年値下げされた携帯電話通信料の影響がはく落したことと、エネルギーや食料の価格上昇が押上げ要因とみられる。生鮮食品とエネルギーを除くコアコアCPIは前年同月比で0.8％上昇となり、前月の同0.7％低下から一転、2020年7月に記録した同0.4％上昇以来のプラスとなった。
日本政府が原油高対策を採っていることで、エネルギー価格は前年同月比19.1％上昇と3月の同20.8％上昇からは上昇ペースが鈍化したが、引き続き高い伸びが続いている。生鮮食品を除く食料は同2.6％上昇（3月は同2.0％上昇）で上昇率は大きくなった。
注目されるのは、消費者物価の伸びが、単月とはいえ、日本銀行が目標として掲げている2.0%に到達した点である。日銀は、２％程度の物価が持続的に推移する状況を目指しているとしており、現段階では、物価上昇は持続しないとみているようである。エネルギーや食料品などの物価上昇は、変動要因が重なったために触れが拡大していると解釈しているようである。
今後、米国と同様に、コストプッシュ型の製品価格の上昇は、企業収益や家計を圧迫して、投資や消費が抑制され、物価が持続的に２%程度伸び続ける状況ではないとの見方である。ただ、４月に改定された経済・物価情勢の展望レポートでは、2022年度のコアCPIの日銀政策委員の見通しは、前年比1.9％まで上方修正されている。2023年度と2024年度は同1.1％へ鈍化すると分析している。ただ、主要国では、昨年一時的な物価上昇と解釈していた中央銀行の予想は、ことごとく外れ、今年になって利上げを急ぐ状況に陥っていることをどう受け止めているのだろうか？
黒田日銀総裁は先日13日の講演でも、金融緩和政策を縮小することは適当ではないとの考えを表明している。確かに、日銀が今、政策変更を論じれば、市場を混乱に陥れることになる。妙な動きをすれば、金利も株価も様々な憶測から荒れた動きになることは、容易に想像できる。しかし、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻を受けた原油や食料品の価格上昇は続き、円安進行も輸入物価を押上げて、消費者物価の上昇要因は顕在化している点を見過ごしてはならないだろう。
日銀には早晩難しい判断を迫られる時が来るだろう。
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